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7/30/20 11:16 P

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For the USA as a whole, about 1400 deaths a day at the end of May, down to about 650 at the end of June, but back up to about 1400 a day at the end of July, and rising.

Many states are under control, but some are not. Really no end in sight overall.

A few hot spots:
Florida, about 230 deaths a day, up from a month ago when it was about 50 a day. Still going up with no idea of when a peak will come.

Texas, about 300 deaths a day, up from a month ago when it was about 100 a day. Also going up.

California, about 150 a day, up from a month ago when it was around 90 a day.



James
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7/24/20 1:21 P

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But here’s the difference. Our governor went against dc and shut us down. Masks mandatory. Contact tracing from the start. All businesses shut down except essential—grocery stores, hospitals, and even them very low numbers allowed in.
Disney world is open for goodness’ sakes. Beaches. Bars. People aren’t distancing or masking. I read this morning Florida has a death from it every 45 seconds or something like that. Yet no masks required, go to the beach, go to Disney. It’s awful!

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7/24/20 12:49 P

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Looking just at deaths, which has little to do with testing rate, except to know that those poor people had the virus ...

In New York state, with a population of 20 million:

March 24 - started getting hot 160 or so deaths a day
April 15 - peaked at about 1000 deaths a day
May 20 - back down to around 160 a day

Adjusted for state population, I'm going to put similar dates for other states

- - - - - -
Arizona, (7.3 million)

July 15 - about 50 a day
Sept 15 - peak 300 a day?
Oct 15 - back down to 50 ?

- - - - - -
Idaho (1.8 million)

About one tenth the population of New York state. So a comparable rate to where New York was on March 24 would be about 16 deaths per day. But they are under 10. So either they have this under control, or the equivalent start of their rise is about a week or two in the future.

- - - - - -
Nevada (3.1 million)

They are around 20 a day right now which given their population seems to be comparable to New York on March 24.
- - - - - -
Florida (21.5 million)

Florida has a similar population, 21.5 million. They just reached about 160 a day in the last two days, and it is going up. So they will probably peak around 1000 a day about a month from now, and be back down to todays rate in 2 months.
- - - - - -
Alabama (4.9 million)

Around 40 deaths a day right now, comparable to New York on March 24.

- - - - - -
Mississipi (3.0 million)

Around 25 deaths a day, but hard to read the data and understand if this is steady or growing.
- - - - - -
South Carolina (10.5 million)

Numbers are growing, but not at 80 yet (to match New Yorks rate of 160 on March 24). Looks like about a week from now they will be at 80 per day.

- - - - - -
Georgia (10.6 million)

Looks like they may have things under control.

- - - - - -
Texas (29.0 million)

Texas has a population of about 29 million. So when their rate is about 240 a day they will be where New York was on about March 24. They are not there yet. They are at about 200 a day and rising, but will be around 240 in 2 or 3 days.

- - - - - -
Arkansas (3.0 million )

Some blips, but it looks like they have things under control.

James
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7/23/20 1:50 P

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i think until they totally lock down like NY did, they are going to continue to see the high numbers. so sad..so unnecessary.

Holly
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7/23/20 12:58 P

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Bad news, just a day later ...

State, population of state, percentage of tests that are positive

July 22:
Arizona, (7.3 million) (24.7%)
Idaho (1.8 million) (20.5%)
Nevada (3.1 million) (20.5%)
Florida (21.5 million) (18.6%)
Alabama (4.9 million) (18.6%)
Mississipi (3.0 million) (18.4%)
South Carolina (10.5 million) (15.4%)
Georgia (10.6 million) (15.1%)
Texas (29.0 million) (15.0%)
Arkansas (3.0 million ) (11.1%)

Looking at deaths for some of these, Florida is at 173 today and the day is just mid-way through, and 173 is already the largest daily number. Before they opened things up they were around 50 a day.

Similar for Alabama. About 20 deaths a day until two weeks ago. Yesterday a new high for them, 61, and they are at 33 for today so far.

Similar for Texas. About 40 deaths a day until two weeks ago. Yesterday a new high of 202.
Here is the graph for Texas, which is pretty typical ...


Sadly, even if you reduced social contact, it wouldn't have much impact on the statistics for about two weeks. In other words rising graphs won't see a down turn for about 2 weeks.

Edited by: -JAMES- at: 7/23/2020 (22:07)
James
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7/22/20 9:57 A

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I just looked at the fraction of positive tests again.

After the state name, the current percentage of COVID-19 tests that are positive, followed by the population of the state in millions.

Yesterday:
Arizona (23%) 7.3 -- unchanged
Idaho (19.1%) 1.8 -- up from 16%
Florida (18.9%) 21.5 -- up from 18.0%
Alabama (18%) 4.9 -- up from 15%
South Carolina (16.3%) 10.5 -- down from 18%
Texas (15.3%) 29.0 -- down from 16%
Georgia (15.1%) 10.6
Kansas (10.8%) 2.9


Last time it was:
Arizona (23%) 7.3
Florida (18%) 21.5
South Carolina (18%) 10.5
Nevada (17%) 3.1
Texas (16%) 29.0
Idaho (16%) 1.8
Mississippi (16%) 3.0
Alabama (15%) 4.9

So some moving around in that list, some are up some are down. But basically as active as before.

James
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7/19/20 12:53 P

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yes good point Rhoadan!

Holly
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7/19/20 12:07 P

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Wearing seatbelts also protects people in the vehicle with you. If you're unbelted in a collision, you become an unguided missile potentially bouncing around the passenger compartment that can injure or kill anyone else in the car.

Edited by: RHOADAN at: 7/19/2020 (12:08)
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7/19/20 9:42 A

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Exactly. a story for you. first is just the warning.

When i was 17 i needed a vehicle for college. I had my heart set on a jeep...preferably an old Willys, but a CJ would work. Every one i found my father nixed. Look you can see the ground through the holes in the floorboard!! I dont like the sound of the engine...every one of them i would have bought in a heartbeat.
one day he calls..says Holls..i just saw one i think looks good and you would like...go take a look. well, it happened to be at some 4-H friends house...their brother had bought it...and it was his baby. no rust, totally clean..in fantastic condition..only 2 things wrong. It had 3 on the tree instead of the stick on the floor i wanted, and it was..gasp..a toyota landcruiser not a jeep. but the second i saw her i fell in love...powder blue...drove like a dream, though unless you were going downhill you couldnt get her over 50 MPH (Daddy did you have an ulterior motive here?)
i bought her as soon as my dad could get there and we test drove it..he could find nothing wrong...it was a done deal i didnt even dicker. $1800
and ohhh how i loved her. and would give about anything to get her back. but i digress. she came with the hard top on, but in the back still in its wrappings was a rag top..custom made to fit the custom roll bars. when i got to college i had the only landcruiser on campus. lots of jeeps, scouts, broncos..but just my inky for a land cruiser. and the first weekend there people convinced me to take off the top and snap on the rag top. pretty soon that meant..with the nice fall weather the rag top came off.. as did the doors...and the windshield folded down..and i was in heaven. only...she didnt have seatbelts. she was a 1969...they didnt require them. I drove all over Gods creation no doors, no roof, no windshield. It only would have taken ONE small thing and i'd have been dead. you dont think about that when you are 17 or 18. just before i had my first child, Inky went in to the shop to get front seatbelts installed. baby carseats had just become a law, so i modified her. the roof stayed on. the windshield stayed up, and the doors stayed on, too. from then on. but when i think what could have happened...ugh.

to me wearing a seatbelt is like wearing a mask. its a safety thing. you do it for you,,and for your loved ones, and as James says, for the people who will have to pay the price if you dont. Glad i smartened up..and grateful what could easily have happened didnt.


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7/19/20 8:28 A

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I just realized that wearing seatbelts, though physically protecting yourself, actually protects others, just like masks protect others. It protects others from the cost of your medical care, which others in the insurance pool will pay.

I used to think that I was a good driver, and as a good driver I could avoid accidents with my skill. My first accident was a head on collision. It was winter, and in a curve the other car slid onto my side of the road coming straight at me. My skill was going to save me, I turned the wheels to avoid the collision, but nothing happened. The road was slippery on both sides.

Not my fault, and my good reflexes couldn't save me. I made it through OK, and we got a new car ... but since that day I started wearing seatbelts even though the law didn't require it at the time. The law just required that cars had seatbelts. Today not wearing a seatbelt feels just strange and wrong, even when I'm only moving the car only a little in my own driveway.

James
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7/19/20 1:00 A

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The thing about masks is..you can convince the ones that refuse to wear them if the facts. When our “leaders” refuse to wear them and continually downplay the virus, it gives others a false sense of safety from it. Much like a teacher teaching math and saying 2 + 2 is 5. Many students will know that isn’t correct, and will protest it. But the ones that believe everything the teacher says, even though every other teacher. Says the answer is 4, won’t be convinced.

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7/19/20 12:34 A

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I had a look at states with 15% of tests being positive, or more. Here they are with percentage positive, and the population of the state in millions:


Arizona (23%) 7.3
Florida (18%) 21.5
South Carolina (18%) 10.5
Nevada (17%) 3.1
Texas (16%) 29.0
Idaho (16%) 1.8
Mississippi (16%) 3.0
Alabama (15%) 4.9

So the population of those eight states adds to about 81 million. The population of the US is about 328 million, so those eight states hold about a quarter of the population of the country, and about every seventh person who was tested, tested positive.

It can look different. Connecticut for example, they have about a 1% positive test rate.


Edited by: -JAMES- at: 7/22/2020 (09:48)
James
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7/19/20 12:06 A

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I heard an interesting discussion on TV about seatbelts and masks. It got me thinking.

Some people in different states claim that it is against the constitution to be made to wear seat belts, an infringement on personal freedom. Well that is true. Personal freedom is important, but not when it impacts others. I don't see how a health care system can be forced to pay more money out when those people get into an accident. Their injuries are typically worse, than those who do wear a seatbelt.

If they have no health insurance, and drive without a seatbelt, get into an accident and receive no medial attention, then that is fine. But if they have health insurance, and drive without a seatbelt, that is a burden on others in that healthcare plan, it impacts the premiums of others. Just like freedom of speech, you can't yell "fire" in a crowded movie theatre. That is a restriction on freedom of speech too.
- - - - -

With COVID-19 however you are not protecting yourself from getting the virus, you are protecting others from yourself. Many folks have the virus, are virtually symptom free, but are great spreaders. Or are spreading the virus before they themselves have symptoms. So unlike seatbelts where you protect yourself, here masks protect others. But the overall benefit to society is that the spread does not overwhelm the health care system, so those that need help can get it.



Edited by: -JAMES- at: 7/19/2020 (00:07)
James
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7/18/20 12:52 P

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we can only hope.

I saw an infectious disease specialist say the other day that he felt that if EVERY person wore masks when out, social distanced, did the hand washing, etc, we could have the entire thing under control in 6-8 weeks. apparently theyve tried it with some communities that agreed to it, and its stopped it in its tracks.

too bad people care more about their perceived rights than getting this over with...

Holly
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7/18/20 12:11 P

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Florida is continuing to hang at around 18% of the tests being positive, and has for the last 2 weeks. During those last two weeks active cases have gone from about 130,000 to about 290,000 and deaths each day from about 50 to 130.

Its not looking good for Florida, and I can only guess that around now the hospitals are going to be overwhelmed.

The population of Florida is about 21,500,000 and total known cases so far, 330,000. If I'm right and about 3% of the cases are confirmed via testing, and 97% are people who get sick, but manage it outside of at hospital. So not just the known 330,000 have been infected, but about 10,000,000 have been exposed. In other words Florida is about half way through. I hope I'm right, and the numbers will probably start dropping about 2 weeks from now.



James
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IWANTTOSUCCEED Posts: 4,773
7/13/20 2:23 P

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Thanks Holly & James.....

Charlene
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7/13/20 2:06 P

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IWANTTOSUCCEED,
I think the people entering these statistics are those who don't feel well and get tested to find out if it is COVID-19, and it is a greater fraction of those are testing positive.

If you are feeling fine, I don't see a reason to get tested just to know. Perhaps if you were feeling ill and thought you might have it, and don't want to infect others. Hard to say. I don't know enough.


Edited by: -JAMES- at: 7/13/2020 (14:08)
James
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7/13/20 1:42 P

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because if you are positive you then know not to go out AT ALL, unless you need hospitalization. plus so they can track the virus. I know a ton of people would would let things get past the point of help because its "just a cold"
better to know.

Holly
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7/13/20 1:02 P

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I'm a bit confused about getting tested.
You can test today and be clear and then find out you've got covid a few days later.
You can get the virus again.
Why would you bother testing?

Charlene
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7/13/20 11:46 A

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its crazy, as is the way some are thinking. i actually had someone tell me yesterday (online) she refuses to get tested as she doesnt want to drive the positive numbers up. thats just certifiable!!

Holly
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7/13/20 10:41 A

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Looks like COVID-19 is no where near being over in the US.

The US as a whole has gone from 8.2% positive four days ago, to 8.8% positive today.

In the last 4 days Florida has hung around 20% of the tests being positive.

Four days ago Texas was 15% positive, and today around 18% positive.

Same site for that information:
coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/i
ndividual
-states/usa


I don't focus on the number of tests being done, which is increasing daily, but on the percentage of tests that are positive, or on hospitalizations. Sadly the number of deaths in the US is about 138,000 so far.

James
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7/9/20 11:06 A

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good info James, thank you!!

Holly
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7/9/20 9:05 A

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I stumbled upon this website, which shows the number of tests done each day, and of those how many are positive, and also from those two numbers the percentage of positive tests.

So this can answer questions like:
"Are positive tests increasing mainly because testing is increasing?"

coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/i
ndividual
-states


Looking at the data on that site, comparing June 9 to July 9 ... one month:

Florida for example, a month ago about 30,000 daily tests, of which about 4% were positive, like 1,300. Yesterday, 51,000 tests, so yes that skews things, new positive tests yesterday, about 10,000 which is about 20% of the tests. So from 4% positive to 20% positive.

In the same time period Texas went from 7% positive, to 15% positive.

The US as a whole about 450,000 tests a day a month ago, and about 650,000 tests a day today. A month ago 4.5% of tests were positive, and yesterday 8.2%.

So its not just testing rate that is increasing the numbers, the fraction or percentage of positive tests is going up for the country, and for the states I looked at.

James
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7/7/20 9:24 A

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As I ponder the statistics, it comes to mind that this is kind of like pregnancy tests. Women who do take such a test typically have a suspicion that they are pregnant and want to be sure.

If you don't have enough such tests, chances are that those who do take such a test have a higher chance of being pregnant. If you have an over-abundance of such tests, ... well at some point many women aren't going to take the test even if available.

Its complicated. Here is a page on the percentage of tests that were found positive, which is a "better" indicator than just positive cases found:
www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#test
in
g

New York, 11-20% positive
New Jersey 11-20%
Texas 6-10%

But I think I'll keep looking at overall positive tests ... or if I can find hospitalizations that would be better, as deaths lag hospitalizations by 2 weeks, and a lot can change in 2 weeks.


Edited by: -JAMES- at: 7/7/2020 (09:51)
James
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7/7/20 12:31 A

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Taking a look at deaths in Texas a moving 7 day average
July 5: 43 per day
June 27: 31
June 20: 29


James
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7/6/20 11:38 P

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BABCIATEA,
you are right, more testing has to mean more confirmed cases. But its really the rate of testing that matters. If the number of people tested each day stays the same, then its a level way of looking at things. But if the testing rate is going up, that messes up the statistics.

But hospitalizations happen independent of testing. If more people come to the hospital and are tested and are positive for COVID-19, it isn't the testing numbers that are going up because you are doing testing ... its people getting sick that is driving the more testing.

Let me see if I can find some hospitalization statistics rather than testing/confirmation statistics.

James
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7/3/20 7:06 A

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James how does this Increase in numbers of cases coorelate with the increase of Numbers of tests being done ? James , actually I am kind of enjoying a hobbit like way of life. In some ways , the inforced solitude is calming even centering .

Edited by: BABCIATEA at: 7/6/2020 (06:50)
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7/3/20 1:11 A

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Well, it really looks like the best we can do is to just eat Keto and stay as healthy as we can, and really we can't just hide in a hole forever. However limit your social interaction to a few close friends and close relatives.

On June 2 there were about 100,000 new cases a day world wide, one month later it is 200,000 new cases a day and the graphs shows it keeps going up.

In the US, new cases were hanging around 30,000 a day for April, May and until mid June. With things opening up in the US in the last 2 weeks that has doubled to 60,000 new cases a day, and rising.

A two days since my last post and Texas is up from 80,000 to 90,000 active cases in that short time. California has gone up from 120,000 to 175,000 active cases in ten days.

Florida had 54,000 active cases about two and a half weeks ago, then 72,000 ten days ago and today it is 140,000 active cases. About doubling in ten days.


Edited by: -JAMES- at: 7/3/2020 (01:13)
James
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7/1/20 12:45 A

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I don't know what it is about Texas. Last time I posted, on June 21 I said active cases doubled from 20,000 to 40,000 in a week.

It is now 9 days later, and active cases are 80,000. It is doubling in just over a week in Texas, and consistently so.
- - - - -

I urge everyone to keep eating Keto, it's healthy, it gives your body what it needs to build healthy cells etc. Do what you can to stay healthy.

James
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Thankyou I want to succeed. Everything so far looks good with dh. We are both continuing with keto. My weight seems to be just stalled for a month , but otherwise I feel very well. Only morning blood sugars are staying high and no change in weight . But thankfully neither of us have any cv symptoms .

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6/28/20 7:15 A

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So happy to read your DH had his vacation schedule at the perfect time. Hope he never came in contact with the person who tested positive.....

I hear ya - I'm over 70 also and have health issue too.....

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That has not been stated yet. It is a government office so that could slow down the reaction time. Dh coincidently had vacation scheduled starting yesterday . So he is home nine days anyway thank goodness. . It was one of those non informational emails that just said someone tested positive. Very scary stuff. We are both over 70 with health issues .

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6/27/20 8:06 A

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Oh no - did that mean that the people in the office (including your DH) now have to stay home and quarantine?



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One of the people working in dh office has tested positive. So the nasty virus has Crept a little closer to us, I have most to the risk Factors for serious reaction so am kind of nervous.

Edited by: BABCIATEA at: 6/26/2020 (04:05)
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Just looking at Texas today, information from this page:
www.worldometers.info/coronav
irus/usa/
texas/


Deaths are not up ... I'd say not up yet. But active cases are way up in the last week, ... really since they opened things up. They were hovering around 2000 active cases, but that has doubled in the last week, now around 4000. Double in a week. Of course they could just be testing more ... hard to say, but double the number of active cases does not look good.

Florida also, a serious uptick in active cases in the last week, 54,000 to about 72,000 in the last week. Deaths are holding steady. But active cases are worrying, as with Texas, perhaps just a delayed reaction in deaths.

Active cases for California, a week ago 104,000 and a week later 120,000, but also death rate is steady.

A similar story in all three of these states. We'll see in another week, but I'd say the US is not out of the woods on this disease. On the plus side for the US, daily deaths are not spiking up, they seem to be going down. Perhaps they (and the world) have learned how to better treat ill patients.

James
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6/17/20 9:46 A

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Florida, Texas and California just had their highest week (more or less) for new cases. Those states just had their highest number of new cases, or near that, yesterday.

The population of those 3 states (millions):
California: 40
Florida: 21
Texas: 29

Together 90 million, which is about 1/3 of the population of the US. Growing in places that add up to 1/3 of the population, it's got me worried.


James
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Subject: Corona calmness

Mentally I'm OK. The corona virus is not running crazy where I am. It is slowly rippling through the population. Everyone will get exposed given time. Some will be mildly ill, ... some worse, and sadly some will die. But there is little we can do. By the time a vaccine is created, tested, produced, distributed, ... it will only be for the last remnants of the population not yet exposed. So not a vaccination en-mass for a whole country.

I'm not hunkered down in my house. I do go out a few times a week. Each location has social distancing, limited number of people in the same store at one time. I have my disinfectant hand spray in the car, and I use it when I'm out. I'm going to be exposed eventually, but I the health care system in my part of Canada is not overwhelmed. So when I get it, I'll get whatever healthcare can be provided, if I need it.

Socially I'm not going to any parties, or events. My social connections are limited to the same 10 to 12 people, not all at once, you know meet this friend, meet that friend. We had lunch at Carol's house the other day, not lunch in a restaurant with others around.

Just looking at my previous post of numbers for states, here are the active cases today. I'm listing the location, number of active cases, then in parenthesis the number of active cases in my previous post:

First the areas that have more active cases:

(R) Arkansas 2,870 (1,496)
(D) Louisiana 7,827 (7,626)
(R) Texas 24,086 (20,175)
(R) Vermont 103 (69)
(D) Wisconsin 6,156 (5670)

Places where active cases went down:

Guam 12 (35)
(R) North Dakota 476 (838)
(R) Oklahoma 765 (1,015)
(D) Minnesota 4,076 (4,894)
(D) Maine 581 (694)

Of those places, that had the biggest growth rate previously, all seem to be pretty under control, in the sense that it is not going wildly out of control, just simmering. The one exception in that list is Arkansas, which has about doubled active cases in the last 2 weeks.




James
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(Next post I'll have a look at countries, not states of USA)

Many days since those last numbers, now the numbers for the end of May 21:


Guam 165 (0.0) | active: 35 | new: 11 | abs: 7.1% | rel: 45.8%
(R) Arkansas 5,458 (3.0) | active: 1496 | new: 455 | abs: 9.1% | rel: 43.7%
(R) North Dakota 2,229 (0.8) | active: 838 | new: 134 | abs: 6.4% | rel: 19.0%
(D) Louisiana 36,504 (4.6) | active: 7626 | new: 1188 | abs: 3.4% | rel: 18.5%
(R) Oklahoma 5,680 (4.0) | active: 1015 | new: 148 | abs: 2.7% | rel: 17.1%
(D) Minnesota 18,200 (5.6) | active: 4894 | new: 530 | abs: 3.0% | rel: 12.1%
(R) Texas 53,444 (29.0) | active: 20175 | new: 1793 | abs: 3.5% | rel: 9.8%
(R) Vermont 950 (0.6) | active: 69 | new: 6 | abs: 0.6% | rel: 9.5%
(D) Wisconsin 13,885 (5.8) | active: 5670 | new: 472 | abs: 3.5% | rel: 9.1%
(D) Maine 1,877 (1.3) | active: 694 | new: 58 | abs: 3.2% | rel: 9.1%

I've not reported on Guam before, mostly because the total number of cases are so low. Perhaps the 11 new cases are just a blip. The other states listed above do have bigger "rel", which is the increase in active cases. The 455 new cases for Arkansas increases their active cases from yesterday 1041, to 1041+455 to 1496, a 43.7% increase. At this rate Arkansas will double active cases every 2 days.

Arkansas needs to open the state up carefully, as do others on the top list above.

Here are the states on the top 10 growth list on both May 10 and May 21 and the increase change in active case numbers:

North Dakota: 656 to 838
Oklahoma: 1250 to 1015 (down)
Minnesota: 3657 to 4894


Edited by: -JAMES- at: 5/22/2020 (09:51)
James
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For May 12, at 6:00 pm, the top 10 states of the united states, ... biggest relative gain in active cases:

(D) Minnesota 12,494 (5.6) | active: 3657 | new: 695 | abs: 5.9% | rel: 23.5%
(R) South Dakota 3,663 (0.9) | active: 1315 | new: 146 | abs: 4.2% | rel: 12.5%
(D) Montana 461 (1.1) | active: 20 | new: 2 | abs: 0.4% | rel: 11.1%
(R) Oklahoma 4,732 (4.0) | active: 1250 | new: 119 | abs: 2.6% | rel: 10.5%
(D) Nevada 6,311 (3.1) | active: 1802 | new: 159 | abs: 2.6% | rel: 9.7%
(R) North Dakota 1,571 (0.8) | active: 656 | new: 53 | abs: 3.5% | rel: 8.8%
(R) Iowa 12,912 (3.1) | active: 7005 | new: 539 | abs: 4.4% | rel: 8.3%
(R) Tennessee 16,111 (6.8) | active: 7510 | new: 567 | abs: 3.6% | rel: 8.2%
(D) Illinois 83,021 (12.7) | active: 78775 | new: 4014 | abs: 5.1% | rel: 5.4%
(R) South Carolina 7,927 (5.1) | active: 2691 | new: 135 | abs: 1.7% | rel: 5.3%

Arkansas, which had a big relative gain on May 10, is not in this "top 10" list, ... that is good.

States in the list above, and on the May 10 list:

- Minnesota is still near the top of the list, which would appear to be not good, but active cases in Minnesota are down from May 10, from 3811 down to 3657 also good.

- Oklahoma, active cases up slightly from 1113 to 1250.

- South Carolina, active cases up from 2441 to 2691





Edited by: -JAMES- at: 5/12/2020 (18:46)
James
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5/11/20 8:24 A

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Top ten US states for a relative increase in detected cases, for Sunday May 10:


(R) Arkansas 4,012 (3.0) | active: 809 | new: 265 | abs: 7.1% | rel: 48.7%
(D) Minnesota 11,271 (5.6) | active: 3811 | new: 481 | abs: 4.5% | rel: 14.4%
(R) Oklahoma 4,589 (4.0) | active: 1113 | new: 99 | abs: 2.2% | rel: 9.8%
(R) Texas 39,890 (29.0) | active: 15168 | new: 1248 | abs: 3.2% | rel: 9.0%
(R) Vermont 927 (0.6) | active: 97 | new: 6 | abs: 0.7% | rel: 6.6%
(D) Wisconsin 10,219 (5.8) | active: 4805 | new: 280 | abs: 2.8% | rel: 6.2%
(D) Maine 1,436 (1.3) | active: 511 | new: 28 | abs: 2.0% | rel: 5.8%
(R) South Carolina 7,653 (5.1) | active: 2441 | new: 122 | abs: 1.6% | rel: 5.3%
(D) Delaware 6,447 (1.0) | active: 3686 | new: 170 | abs: 2.7% | rel: 4.8%
(D) Nevada 6,098 (3.1) | active: 1595 | new: 70 | abs: 1.2% | rel: 4.6%

Now the relative increase in cases in Arkansas of 48.7%, is that the number of new detected cases 265 made the total active jump to 809 ... so the day before it was 809-265 which was 544 at the end of Saturday, and 544 to 809 is a 48.7% increase.

It looks very high, but in absolute numbers, Arkansas has had 4,012 total detections so far, so 265 is a big day, but probably not a fire out of control. Plus Arkansas didn't make it onto the radar screen before. Is it more testing? Hard to say.

Minnesota, Oklahoma and Texas on the other hand has consistently come to attention.

P.S. I found a webpage with testing statistics per state
www.politico.com/interactives
/2020/cor
onavirus-testing-by-state-cha
rt-of
-new-cases/

Yes testing rates are going up, but my impression is that detected infection rate is not going up because more tests are available. Anyway one can look at individual testing rates over time. Maybe later.

Edited by: -JAMES- at: 5/11/2020 (08:42)
James
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5/11/20 8:13 A

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NIGHTSKYSTAR,
that actually might be a good thing. Yes, there is no way to avoid the virus, everyone on the planet will be exposed in time, and pretty quickly really.

On the plus side, if many folks get the virus, test positive, but have no, or virtually no symptoms, perhaps a high chunk of people will have it and not be impacted. Yes they can infect others, but they themselves feel fine.

James
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5/10/20 2:21 P

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well..i can tell you this. the government FINALLY, after being threatened with a lawsuit by the union, came up with antibody testing for the border agents. there are so many, that there was a backup of appointments to maintain distancing (the lab follows the rules..the government, not so much as their workstations on the border are 2 feet apart). my daughter got hers weds or thurs. when she called me today i asked about the results. she was quiet and said..mine arent back yet...but the majority are testing positive. I said well, didnt you know that would happen? well no..
yeah. its all over. we need to continue to be really careful!!

Holly
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MAR_V3 is right, in the USA the states are doing more and more testing than before, so number of positive tests does go up, and that makes going on number of positive cases for analysis sketchy, as testing changes over time.

On the other hand, statistics of deaths are less plentiful and more subject to fluctuations, plus of course I'm sure that there are those who have died of COVID-19 and the cause of death was uncertain.

No good way to analyze the numbers.

James
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5/9/20 11:51 P

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Looking at number of newly detected cases today ... and a bunch of thoughts.

Here are the 10 states of the USA with the greatest relative increase in cases. That is the greatest number of new cases but compared to active cases. So South Dakota had 249 new cases today to reach 1234 active cases that is 25.3% increase.

The 249 new cases today raised the South Dakota total number of cases to 3,393, and that is a 7.9% increase.

Since I think people stay counted in the active group by about 2 weeks, this means that the active cases should also drop by 7% each day due to that. So if the relative increase is less than about 7%, the active number of cases should be decreasing, more than 7% and it is in growth mode.

So South Dakota had a 25.3% increased in active cases, clearly growth. Since South Dakota has 3393 total cases, and 1234 active, this means that they have had things under pretty good control in the past.

If their growth rate stays the same, the rule of 72 says their number of cases will double every 72/25.3 days, which is 2.8 days. We will see on Tuesday if active cases doubles to around 2500.

Minnesota is similar.

Nevada, if the 10% rate hold, would take a week to double.

I think the rest are holding steady, or declining slowly. These are the 10 "hottest" states as far as relative increase in cases goes.

I'm suspecting that in the states that are "opening up", they are opening with restrictions, like only so many in a restaurant, and so on. My local Home Depot is open, but a limit of something like 30 customers in the store at one time. A short line to get in, maybe 5 minutes.

On the other hand, looking at South Dakota again, population of 0.9 million, about 900,000 and 3,393 confirmed cases, and my estimate that is is about one in 30 of actual cases, means about 100,000 in their population have probably gotten the virus, with about 800,000 still to go. Just my educated guess on how far to go.

My hope, open things up slowly and with restrictions, like at my Home Depot. I think this can be done without overwhelming the medical care, ... people's lives are on the line. This can be done like a controlled burn fire, but it will still take months.


Highest relative increase states on May 9:


(R) South Dakota 3,393 (0.9) | active: 1234 | new: 249 | abs: 7.9% | rel: 25.3%
(D) Minnesota 10,790 (5.6) | active: 3910 | new: 702 | abs: 7.0% | rel: 21.9%
(D) Nevada 6,028 (3.1) | active: 1525 | new: 144 | abs: 2.4% | rel: 10.4%
(R) South Carolina 7,531 (5.1) | active: 2320 | new: 164 | abs: 2.2% | rel: 7.6%
(D) Maine 1,408 (1.3) | active: 487 | new: 34 | abs: 2.5% | rel: 7.5%
(D) Wisconsin 9,939 (5.8) | active: 5193 | new: 349 | abs: 3.6% | rel: 7.2%
(R) Texas 38,642 (29.0) | active: 13942 | new: 915 | abs: 2.4% | rel: 7.0%
(D) Louisiana 31,417 (4.6) | active: 8834 | new: 562 | abs: 1.8% | rel: 6.8%
(R) Mississippi 9,378 (3.0) | active: 4536 | new: 288 | abs: 3.2% | rel: 6.8%
(R) North Dakota 1,464 (0.8) | active: 667 | new: 39 | abs: 2.7% | rel: 6.2%

- - - - - - - -
P.S.

Looking at the other 40 states ...

25524 new cases on May 9, and 3446 of those new cases are in the10 states above.
The other 40 states, 25524-3446 = 22,078 new cases
Active cases in all 50 states at the end of May 9: 1,029,194
Active cases in the top 10 states above: 1234+ 3910 + 667 = 42,658
Active cases in the other 40 states: 1,029,194 - 42,658 = 986,546

So after all those numbers, the other 40 states had:
986,546 active cases at the end of May 9, and 22,078 new cases in those states. The danger point is new cases being about 7% of active cases, and this is 2.2% well below 7%.

So if my analysis is right things are under control.


Edited by: -JAMES- at: 5/10/2020 (02:00)
James
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5/8/20 10:55 A

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For May 6, the top, or worst state in the USA:
May 6:

(D) New Jersey 135,106 (8.9) | new deaths per million people 29.4
(D) Connecticut 31,784 (3.6) | new deaths per million people 21.9
(D) New York 337,421 (19.4) | new deaths per million people 21.1
(D) Pennsylvania 56,002 (12.8) | new deaths per million people 19.1
(R) Massachusetts 73,721 (6.9) | new deaths per million people 19.1
(D) Rhode Island 10,530 (1.1) | new deaths per million people 16.4
(D) District Of Columbia 5,654 (0.7) | new deaths per million people 11.4
(R) Maryland 29,374 (6.0) | new deaths per million people 11.0
(D) Illinois 70,873 (12.7) | new deaths per million people 10.8
(D) Michigan 45,646 (10.0) | new deaths per million people 9.3

It really jostled around since yesterday. The top states are down to about 2/3 of the day before, even so, of the 10 above, 8 of them were in the top ten from yesterday. Just have to see at the end of the day where things sit.

Edited by: -JAMES- at: 5/8/2020 (11:01)
James
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5/8/20 9:30 A

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Thanks James. This will be interesting to see the stats when this is all over. Stay safe!

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5/7/20 10:42 A

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MAR_V3,
The delays are:
5 day incubation period with no symptoms
7 more days until going to hospital and getting tested
9 more days for those who die

So from first infection, for those who sadly die, it is about 21 days. The difference between using death statistics rather than infection detection statistics is about 9 days in most cases.

Here is a website showing times from infection to potential death, or recovery:
www.cbc.ca/news/health/typica
l-covid-1
9-progression-1.5546949


A graphic from that page:



From that graph, one can see that people go to the hospital and are tested about 7 days after symptoms first appear. For those that die, in hospital it is typically about another 8 days after that, day 15, and for those not in hospital, just slightly longer.

So the delay in looking at deaths rather than detected infections is about 9 days.

If one opens up, and cases grow because of that, there would be about a delay in detected infections by about 5 days because that is the typical incubation period with no symptoms:
www.publichealthontario.ca/-/
media/doc
uments/ncov/research-lauer-an
ninte
rnmed-the-incubation-period.pdf?la=en


So if an area opens up on social distancing, one shouldn't see any impact for about 5+7, or 12 days, and delayed impact on deaths is about 5+7+9, or 21 days.

P.S. I made your link clickable and had a look, here it is:
coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/port
al/gov/co
vid-19/resources/news-release
s-new
s-you-can-use/covid-19-update-tes
t
ing-priority-ohio-bmvs


Edited by: -JAMES- at: 5/7/2020 (20:05)
James
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5/7/20 8:14 A

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Death rates are 4-6 weeks behind. First people get sick, then hospital, then death. Those numbers will give you good data for the past. Then there were those who passed that were never tested. Governor Dewine looks at hospitalizations as those numbers are the most accurate in his opinion.

Gov, Dewine made a testing work group that consists of the two past governors. They pulled some strings and we have been increasing our testing capacity every day. That being said, we still don't have enough.

The Ohio Dept of Health (ODH) is doing a study with 1000 randomly chosen individuals to try and calculate the prevalence in the general population. More studies are forthcoming as the testing capacity increases.

Ohio has been testing on a three tier priority list. Yes, those sickest individuals get tested first, then healthcare workers. The PDF can be found here

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/
gov/covid-19/resources/news-releases-n
ews-you-can-use/covid-19-update-testin
g-priority-ohio-bmvs

Yes this is crazy, these numbers are a moving target and have many variables! The ODH director Amy Acton is promising data that has been adjusted relative to the increase in testing. We have it, but it is not on the website as of yet.

Edited by: MAR_V3 at: 5/7/2020 (08:20)
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5/6/20 7:45 P

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So, not looking at tests done, but deaths that happened on a particular day, per million of population.

This is (D) democrat, or (R) republican, the state, the number of cases, the population of the state in millions, so New Jersey has 133,059 people who have tested positive for COVID-19, and the population of New Jersey is 8.9 million, hence (8.9) on that line, and on May 5 31.5 people died for every million people in New Jersey.
May 5:
(D) New York 333,491 (19.4) | new deaths per million people 38.8
(D) New Jersey 133,059 (8.9) | new deaths per million people 31.5
(R) Massachusetts 72,025 (6.9) | new deaths per million people 30.1
(D) Connecticut 30,995 (3.6) | new deaths per million people 23.6
(D) District Of Columbia 5,461 (0.7) | new deaths per million people 18.6
(D) Rhode Island 10,205 (1.1) | new deaths per million people 13.6
(R) New Hampshire 2,740 (1.4) | new deaths per million people 13.6
(D) Pennsylvania 54,898 (12.8) | new deaths per million people 11.8
(D) Louisiana 30,399 (4.6) | new deaths per million people 11.3
(D) Illinois 68,232 (12.7) | new deaths per million people 10.7

So May 5 is looking worse than May 4 or May 2. Indeed, May 5 had 2528 deaths, more deaths than any day since April 21. April 21 had a slightly higher number, 2683.

=================================
May 4:
(D) Rhode Island 9,652 (1.1) | new deaths per million people 19.1
(D) Connecticut 30,173 (3.6) | new deaths per million people 16.9
(D) New York 327,374 (19.4) | new deaths per million people 15.3
(R) Massachusetts 69,087 (6.9) | new deaths per million people 12.5
(D) Louisiana 29,673 (4.6) | new deaths per million people 11.3
(D) District Of Columbia 5,170 (0.7) | new deaths per million people 10.0
(D) Michigan 43,950 (10.0) | new deaths per million people 8.6
(D) New Jersey 129,345 (8.9) | new deaths per million people 7.3
(R) Georgia 29,438 (10.6) | new deaths per million people 6.3
(R) Maryland 26,408 (6.0) | new deaths per million people 6.0


May 2
(D) Connecticut 29,287 (3.6) | new deaths per million people 26.9
(D) New Jersey 123,717 (8.9) | new deaths per million people 22.9
(R) Massachusetts 66,263 (6.9) | new deaths per million people 18.8
(D) Rhode Island 9,289 (1.1) | new deaths per million people 15.5
(D) New York 319,213 (19.4) | new deaths per million people 15.4
(D) Michigan 43,207 (10.0) | new deaths per million people 15.4
(D) District Of Columbia 4,797 (0.7) | new deaths per million people 12.9
(D) Pennsylvania 50,915 (12.8) | new deaths per million people 9.8
(R) Maryland 24,473 (6.0) | new deaths per million people 9.8
(D) Delaware 5,038 (1.0) | new deaths per million people 9.0

April 15:
(D) Connecticut 14,755 (3.6) | new deaths per million people 54.7
(D) New Jersey 71,030 (8.9) | new deaths per million people 39.4
(D) New York 214,648 (19.4) | new deaths per million people 38.8
(R) Massachusetts 29,918 (6.9) | new deaths per million people 21.9
(D) Louisiana 21,951 (4.6) | new deaths per million people 19.6
(D) Michigan 28,059 (10.0) | new deaths per million people 15.3
(R) Maryland 10,032 (6.0) | new deaths per million people 7.8
(R) Indiana 8,955 (6.7) | new deaths per million people 7.3
(D) District Of Columbia 2,197 (0.7) | new deaths per million people 7.1
(D) Pennsylvania 26,753 (12.8) | new deaths per million people 6.5

April 12:
(D) New York 189,415 (19.4) | new deaths per million people 39.1
(D) New Jersey 61,850 (8.9) | new deaths per million people 18.8
(D) Connecticut 12,035 (3.6) | new deaths per million people 16.7
(R) Massachusetts 25,475 (6.9) | new deaths per million people 10.1
(D) Michigan 24,638 (10.0) | new deaths per million people 9.5
(D) Louisiana 20,595 (4.6) | new deaths per million people 7.4
(D) Rhode Island 2,665 (1.1) | new deaths per million people 6.4
(R) Maryland 8,225 (6.0) | new deaths per million people 4.8
(D) Pennsylvania 22,920 (12.8) | new deaths per million people 4.7
(D) District Of Columbia 1,875 (0.7) | new deaths per million people 4.3


Edited by: -JAMES- at: 5/6/2020 (21:34)
James
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5/6/20 10:42 A

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MAR_V3,
You have a point. I found a webpage that shows number of states are pretty linear in their testing rate, but some are increasing their rate of testing.

I hunted around, and found this webpage:
www.politico.com/interactives
/2020/cor
onavirus-testing-by-state-cha
rt-of
-new-cases/


I think California is the only place where one can just get tested. Don't most places require that you be admitted to hospital, and be sick enough that they will even do a test?

In other words the states that have an increased rate of testing have that driven by increased number of ill people who go to hospital, not an increase in demand outside of people going to hospital. Still, if one looks at death rate by state rather than detected infection rate, ... that statistic should hardly be connected to testing rate.

This is crazy. I'm trying to stay sane and logical in talking about this.

Edited by: -JAMES- at: 5/6/2020 (18:05)
James
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5/6/20 9:35 A

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Marby where is there more testing available? there sure isnt any here in NY. my doc fought hard for me to get a test but since i couldnt prove contact with someone infected the answer was no

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5/6/20 8:38 A

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James, Are you taking into account that there is more testing available?

Marby V
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Daily new cases in the USA still seem to be holding steady, despite some social opening up in some places, and this is great.

Holding very steady at around 27,000 new cases a day ... even a little less today, it is wobbling up and down around 27,000. Today was about 25,000 new cases.

Here are the hot states today:

(D) Minnesota 7,851 (5.6) | active: 2782 (up 28.5%)
(D) Kentucky 5,822 (4.5) | active: 4425 (up 15.0%)
(D) Wisconsin 8,566 (5.8) | active: 4240 (up 8.4%)
(R) Mississippi 8,207 (3.0) | active: 4452 ( up 8.0%)
(R) Texas 34,238 (29.0) | active: 16613 (up 7.9%)
(R) Oklahoma 4,127 (4.0) | active: 1198 (up 7.4%)
(D) Kansas 5,632 (2.9) | active: 4490 (up 7.3%)
(R) South Dakota 2,721 (0.9) | active: 802 (up 7.1% )

The percentage increase above is today's increase in active cases, not in total cases. South Dakota for example has had 2,721 cases so far. Yesterday that state had 749 cases, and the 7.1% increase in that number gets you to today's 802.


James
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5/5/20 1:28 P

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on aspirin...when i worked in the pharmacy we had an outpatient pickup. people could order otc meds. one person ordered a huge vat of acetylsalicylic acid which is the fancy name for aspirin. The pharmacy director had a fit..and i remember him being extremely upset saying that aspirin was one of the most abused and dangerous drugs there is...it can cause so many side effects and people pop it like its candy. so i did some reading on it and was shocked at the problems it can cause.


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i still think we are doing the right thing in NY. cuomo wont be bullied into opening too early. the numbers, we now find out, are very skewed and there are so many more cases than was reported. Sweden, who took little to no precautions, is now in deep trouble. i dont even want to see the numbers in a couple weeks after georgia and other places foolishly opened without mucj precaution.
i am in agreement that something has to be done. but..what? we relax the distancing. more will die. for ages it was said elderly and those with compromised immune systems, yet there are many in their 20-50s dying. with none of the risk factors. look at the 80 plus employees at the massachusetts walmart..all positive. how many did they pass it to?
i've said it before and will say it again. i would rather stay in, hopefully ration the food i have in the freezer to last months, and be done with it, than to open too fast, having more and more die. and those that make it through are having residual problems...and then there are those who think they are safe as they had it, then test negative finally, and then get it again. i think its foolish to open now. personal opinion..and gut feeling. and i've never hoped harder to be wrong about something...

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Subject: coronavirus vaccine


As for a vaccine ... don't count on a yet undiscovered, unproved, or not fully tested vaccine save you. For example even the long standing small pox vaccine has some people not wanting it because of these possible issues:
- autism
- inflammation of the brain (postvaccinal encephalitis)
- heart inflammation, and heart attack
- skin rash
- low fever
- glands in the armpits may become large and sore

So if a possible vaccine is created, and produced in quantity that say 100,000,000 people in the US are vaccinated in a period of a month or so, only to find that there are serious side effects, ... the cure may be just as bad as the disease, and that won't be known right away. No vaccine is like taking something like aspirin for a headache. Come to think of it, I take aspirin when I have the occasional headache, I've taken it in the past with no problems. Others in my social circle shun the humble aspirin and suggest acetaminophen or other medication for a headache. So even something as well known and simple as aspirin has these issues:

Asprin:
- Rye's syndrome, brain and liver damage
- Ringin in the ears
- Internal bleeding in the stomach

So if some shun well known aspirin, what will happen with an essentially untested new vaccine?

My wife's idea ... eat healthy, stay healthy, eat a broad range of things to get a broad range of nutrients, just be healthy when you are exposed to this virus.


James
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5/5/20 12:53 P

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Subject: The dimension of social interaction

I had an insight this morning. Just one of those things that happen when you aren't trying to think about it.

My Ph.D. thesis in physics involved doing calculations for a magnetic systems. Had do do with a system in 2+e dimensions, where e is small. It was mathematical "tricks". A 2 dimensional system is a "flat" sheet of something. A little bit more than 2 dimensions, but not big enough to be 3, ... well mathematical tricks. But it allows my mind to think about dimensions that are not 1 or 2 or 3 or eve 4, but something like 2.2. I can't visualize 2.2 dimensions, but I can do the calculations.

Here was my vision this morning. I noticed that in the USA the number of new cases each day is holding steady about about 19,000 new cases each day. True for the last 2 to 3 weeks. I couldn't understand the linearity when I thought it should be out of control, or declining.

My thought this morning was ... in one dimension a fuze keeps burning steadily. Old parts burn out, cool and are burned out, but the active new burning part is always a steady amount. This is a one dimensional fuse, a line.

In two dimensions, if you light a sheet of paper with a lighter in the middle of the sheet, the hole burns out, and it spreads, the burning area, a circle, grows, unlike a fuze, that circle gets bigger.

In higher dimensions, like in a stick of three dimensional dynamite, the spread is so fast that it explodes.

So it occurred to me this morning, that the average number of social connections is related to the "social dimension". The fact that the number of new cases each day in the USA stays so steady is that each person is having a social connection or roughly 2 people. It is like a line of people, each holding hands, someone on the left, someone on the right. The person on your right gets sick, then you, then the person on your left. This spread is like a burning fuse, and the number of sick people stays steady.

If you have more social interactions, it will spread more quickly. So right now, with folks social distancing, they are interacting with about 2 others outside their household on average.

So with about 28,000 new confirmed cases a day, and with only about 3% of cases in hospital this means about 900,000 actual new cases a day ... if this linearity continues in the USA 328 million people at 900,000 new cases a day .. divides to give 364 days. So one year from now the disease will have run its course.

The economy can not shut down for this long. The only solution is to start things up, but to do so in a way that instills social distancing and hygiene for the next year. If my calculations are off, then perhaps only 6 months, but it is going to go on for many months.

Alternatives are to just let things go, and let this fire burn through the forest. The problem is that the the forest that is burning is one where the trees are real people. A hot fast burning forrest fire kills more trees, a slower burning forest allows the fire fighters to keep the fire at a less intense level, the forrest fire still runs through the whole forrest, but fewer trees are killed.

It's a hard choice. I think that the economy needs to be opened up, but slowly. Infections need to be monitored, and feedback needs to modify plans. This will take many many months. It won't just disappear because Spring is over, ... or because summer is over, it won't just go away with wishful thinking. It will just spread through the world, controlled or uncontrolled.

James
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5/3/20 12:31 A

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I am worried for the numbers in the states that have started opening

Holly
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Just for comparison. I had a snapshot of those same 11 states on April 15, where the percentage of increase is over the previous day, April 14:

(R) South Carolina 3,656 (5.1) | active: 3549 | new: 103 | abs: 2.9% | rel: 3.0%
(D) Minnesota 1,809 (5.6) | active: 782 | new: 114 | abs: 6.7% | rel: 17.1%
(R) Iowa 1,995 (3.1) | active: 1201 | new: 96 | abs: 5.1% | rel: 8.7%
(R) Tennessee 6,079 (6.8) | active: 3748 | new: 256 | abs: 4.4% | rel: 7.3%
(R) Nebraska 952 (1.9) | active: 909 | new: 51 | abs: 5.7% | rel: 5.9%
(R) New Hampshire 1,139 (1.4) | active: 742 | new: 48 | abs: 4.4% | rel: 6.9%
(R) Oklahoma 2,263 (4.0) | active: 985 | new: 79 | abs: 3.6% | rel: 8.7%
(D) Wisconsin 3,721 (5.8) | active: 3452 | new: 166 | abs: 4.7% | rel: 5.1%
(R) South Dakota 1,168 (0.9) | active: 833 | new: 180 | abs: 18.2% | rel: 27.6%
(D) New Mexico 1,484 (2.1) | active: 1153 | new: 77 | abs: 5.5% | rel: 7.2%
(R) North Dakota 365 (0.8) | active: 214 | new: 24 | abs: 7.0% | rel: 12.6%

So in those 17 days the states and their active cases on April 15, and May 2 are:

(R) South Carolina 3549 --> 1341 (*)
(D) Minnesota 782 --> 3436 (*)
(R) Iowa 1201 -->5310 (*)
(R) Tennessee 3748 --> 6734 (*)
(R) Nebraska 909 --> 5228
(R) New Hampshire 742 --> 1328
(R) Oklahoma 985 --> 1212 (*)
(D) Wisconsin 3452 --> 4116 (*)
(R) South Dakota 833 --> 619 (*)
(D) New Mexico 1153 --> 2833 (*)
(R) North Dakota 214 --> 619 (*)

Of these 11, South Carolina has had a substantial reduction in active cases, and South Dakota a bit of a reduction. The rest, despite any social distancing, have grown a fair bit in active cases.

I put a (*) next to states that have a partial opening of social distancing, only Nebraska and New Hampshire have not had a change in social distancing, but may open things up a little in May. However, both of these states have had a fair growth in active cases.


Edited by: -JAMES- at: 5/2/2020 (23:19)
James
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5/2/20 9:08 P

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I grabbed the statistics from the "worldometers" website for individual states of the United States of America today. Shortly the website will rollover, and I'll loose the information from the end of the day. So here is some of the information before it rolls over and is lost to me.

For today ... just the hot spots states with a high relative increase in active cases:

(R) South Carolina 6,489 (5.1) | active: 1341 | new: 231 | abs: 3.7% | rel: 20.8%
(D) Minnesota 6,228 (5.6) | active: 3436 | new: 498 | abs: 8.7% | rel: 17.0%
(R) Iowa 8,641 (3.1) | active: 5310 | new: 757 | abs: 9.6% | rel: 16.6%
(R) Tennessee 12,661 (6.8) | active: 6734 | new: 770 | abs: 6.5% | rel: 12.9%
(R) Nebraska 5,326 (1.9) | active: 5228 | new: 488 | abs: 10.1% | rel: 10.3%
(R) New Hampshire 2,429 (1.4) | active: 1328 | new: 119 | abs: 5.2% | rel: 9.8%
(R) Oklahoma 3,851 (4.0) | active: 1212 | new: 103 | abs: 2.7% | rel: 9.3%
(D) Wisconsin 7,660 (5.8) | active: 4116 | new: 346 | abs: 4.7% | rel: 9.2%
(R) South Dakota 2,588 (0.9) | active: 808 | new: 63 | abs: 2.5% | rel: 8.5%
(D) New Mexico 3,732 (2.1) | active: 2833 | new: 219 | abs: 6.2% | rel: 8.4%
(R) North Dakota 1,153 (0.8) | active: 619 | new: 46 | abs: 4.2% | rel: 8.0%

I'll just explain the first line. Republican state (R) South Dakota has 6489 confirmed cases so far. The state's population is 5.1 million, hence that "(5.1)". Active cases for this state are 1341, new cases today are 231. This 231 is 3.7% of 6489, so the absolute increase in cases is 3.7%. The relative increase, 20.8% means a 20.8% increase in the 1341 active cases since yesterday.

I'd guess that each confirmed case is a person who is probably spending 2 weeks on the "active" list. Such a person spends 7% of their "time" each day of those two weeks (14 times 7 is almost 100). So if the relative growth in cases is less than 7% then the state has things under control. I listed the top states that have had the most growth in active cases since yesterday.

The "rule of thumb" is to divide the growth rate, 20.8 percent into 72, which is about 3.5 days to double active cases at this rate.

So based on today's numbers the 11 states above are not under control. The other state are around 7% relative new cases per day of less, many in the range of 4% or so.

- - - - - - - -
In comparison, New York State today:
(D) New York 319,213 (19.4) | active: 244278 | new: 3991 | abs: 1.3% | rel: 1.7%

Their new active cases is 3991 is 1.7% of active 244,278. Again, since I assume that about 7% of the 244278 leave the active list each day, ... this state is well in decline.



James
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4/30/20 8:40 A

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Oh and in Ohio no more that 10 people in a gathering.

Marby V
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4/30/20 7:39 A

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It’s that way here, too James, people were just asking when sports would be back and that was the answer, I’m otherwords, not anytime soon

Holly
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4/30/20 1:14 A

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In my province of Alberta, the 100 limit of the Prime Minister is certainly met. The rules here are:
- No gathering of more than 15 people

This includes every group you can imagine:
- weddings
- funerals
- religions services
- educational seminars
...

You name it, 15 max.

James
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4/28/20 10:51 A

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James..The radio station i get is from Cornwall ontario. They talk about the virus a lot..and this morning apparently got a lot of calls asking about sporting events, fairs, etc. They said the PM has said that any groups of 100 or more are suspended for "the forseeable future".
As much as i am hurting from zero income, i'm hoping they cancel the horse shows here. its a huge group, the horses spew up dust and everything, i work in a tiny booth in close quarters, and frankly its worrisome.

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4/28/20 10:43 A

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This week starting Friday May 1st. Elective medical procedures may resume. (The dentists are worried about PPE.)

Then on May 12, non-essential manufacturing and retail may open with measures in place to protect their employees and customers. These measures include masks, social distancing, only 50% of the fire code capacity for occupancy, and supplying sanitizer.

Schools, gyms, barbers, child care centers, and massage therapists remain closed.

Ohio is taking it slow. The governor's reasoning is that there are mental and physical health problems associated with economic downturns.He has seen that essential businesses have had success with preventive measures and he believes that others can do this too.

We are still under the shut down orders and encouraged to only go out if necessary.

More information can be found at coronavirus@ohio.gov

Edited by: MAR_V3 at: 4/28/2020 (10:44)
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4/27/20 2:52 P

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Did Governor Dewine, announce anything specific. What is open, what isn't, or restrictions of numbers of people in one place at one time sort of thing?

It is now almost 3:00 pm in Ohio.

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4/27/20 11:10 A

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its ok!! why would you have any need to know that? just that hes being quoted alot, as he has really stepped up and is highly respected for his stance on the virus.

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Ooops, I should have double checked that ... I am Canadian.

James
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4/27/20 10:42 A

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no..Cuomo is the governor of our state. but even though NYC is small compared to the rest of the state..it has the biggest population..and is a hub for people coming to the USA. so they are going to have a ton more cases just by those two facts. I DO think he was referring to them with his numbers, but just wanted to say hes not the mayor. Bill DiBlasio is the mayor of NYC.

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I'll take a look at Ohio too.

I've been twirling thoughts around in my head ... looking at how many active cases there are in a region (country or state), looking at how many new active cases there are, and ratios of such things along with being in hospital about 14 days, ...

Its hard to decipher because in some states I get the feeling that some people get tested and sent home and somehow counted differently.

I did realized yesterday when Cuomo said N.Y. was over the hump and I kept looking at the statistics and not seeing that ... I was looking at New York State, and the state is pretty much on the hump right now, and New York City, which is what Cuomo, as mayor of the city, is reporting on. Looking at statistics for just the city, yes its over the hump.

James
Alberta, Canada


All time highest weight : 217 pounds

Starting weight : 195.0 pounds (June 7, 2012)
Final weight : 168.2 pounds (July 23, 2013)


 current weight: 172.5 
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4/27/20 9:09 A

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Ohio Governor Mike Dewine will let us all know what the slow opening of Ohio looks like today at 2:00. We are all curious as to what will be the message.

Marby V
Yellow Springs, Ohio


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4/26/20 12:17 P

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here is what cuomo is proposing for NY. first...open businesses that can be distanced. and limit to gatherings of 10 people or less. then 25, then 50. do it slowly, so they can see how its going. i see other places saying they will open hairdressers and restaurants..NOT a good idea..a hairdresser cant distance!! and the restaurant? they have confirmed cases of air conditioning units, fans, blown air heat spreading the virus. maybe if they have outdoor seating and can separate tables..otherwise..no.
i think it has to be slow..really slow. i want out as much as anyone..but i'd rather be in for 4 more months, then out for one and back in till Christmas, or worse, sick or dead.

Holly
Northern NY
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4/26/20 11:58 A

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How does a state, or country know when it is over the hump, when can they "open things up" at least to some degree?

First of all, any time you open things up, you will get more cases, but there is some sort of balance to be reached. We can't all just stay home for 8 months.

Germany is starting to think about opening things up now. They are basing their decisions on solid numbers. I think they just want the number of current active cases to go down. That is every infected person infects just one other person, or less than one other person on average. This way the virus slowly passes through the population in a flat, or decreasing way.

So it's the active number of cases that matters. Active cases should go down.

James
Alberta, Canada


All time highest weight : 217 pounds

Starting weight : 195.0 pounds (June 7, 2012)
Final weight : 168.2 pounds (July 23, 2013)


 current weight: 172.5 
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-JAMES-'s Photo -JAMES- Posts: 14,917
4/25/20 6:48 P

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Just how small is a virus?

A typical human hair is .07 millimetres across.
A red blood cell is about 7 micrometers
A typical virus is about 300 nanometers

Does that help you see how small a virus is? No.

But imagine this ... making a single hair on your head so big that it thickness fills a football field end to end, about 100 yards, or 100 meters (close enough to the same thing).

A red blood cell will have grown to be about 10 yards (or 10 meters) across. Sort of a giant glazed doughnut without a hole. Ten of them would fit side by side from one end of the field to the other end (or across the width of one of your hairs).

So how big is a typical virus then? It has grown to about 1/5 of an inch ( 1/2 cm). So you see how much smaller a virus is than even a red blood cell.

A virus needs a cell to "live" in. Just comparing the size of a typical virus to a simple red blood cell shows you how a virus would fit inside a human cell with no problem.

Edited by: -JAMES- at: 4/25/2020 (19:13)
James
Alberta, Canada


All time highest weight : 217 pounds

Starting weight : 195.0 pounds (June 7, 2012)
Final weight : 168.2 pounds (July 23, 2013)


 current weight: 172.5 
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4/25/20 1:11 P

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ok. see here? single use bags were outlawed and we HAVE to bring our own or have nothing to carry in. the law went into effect i think march 1? not positive, but i do know they have waived it until this is over, BUT, most stores have none, as they got rid of them when the ban went into effect

Holly
Northern NY
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 Pounds lost: 141.0 
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