Yeah yeah, "obsessed" YOUR FACE.... you call it obsession, I call it RESEARCH.
I was looking at this thingee again:
That's my BMR, calories burned, and eaten, for October 14, 2012, through this week.
I was pleased to notice how the last 3-4 weeks all the way on the right there are starting to even out again - those exercise bars have reappeared, and my calories eaten doesn't swing wildly around from week to week.
Those crazy swings in June/July are not the result of eating really low calories! That's when I wasn't tracking consistently. There were days I'd track breakfast, or breakfast and lunch, and then be like "screw it, I can't remember what I ate...." I should go back and delete those days that show me at ~400 or 600 calories for the day because it's only a meal or two, but I'm too lazy.
But I digress. (SHOCKING, I know. HA.)
I was looking at that and wondering what my calorie deficit really WAS. It looks cool and all, but you know me - I have to do the MATH.
So I calculated my average deficit for all of those months (October to October), and also what that deficit should theoretically work out to in weight loss in pounds per week.
The results are interesting, because clearly average "calories eaten" for a week or month is NOT the whole story.
as always, December is the best: deficit 921 calories, which is ~1.8lbs/week loss. That would be 7.2 lbs in December, and I actually lost 10.2lbs. The only month where I ever did BETTER than what the math predicts.
Then, I have May, where I had a deficit of 607, 1.2lbs/week, should have lost around 4.8lbs in May. Instead, I GAINED 4lbs. Why?? Well if I look at my calendar, I didn't track all of May - 24/31 days. I also had seven days where my calories eaten were over 2,000.
I find this for a lot of months - I either didn't lose, or gained, where I wasn't tracking (worst was June, tracked only 6 days) and/or had a lot of days where I ate a LOT, and a few low calorie days that make my monthly average look not so bad.
February is a perfect example. Mathematically my deficit was 583 calories, should be enough to lose 1.1 lb per week or at least 4 lbs in Feb. I GAINED a pound, which only makes sense when I see that I had ELEVEN days in Feb over 2000 calories, plus a day over 3000. Also explains why March was so volatile... Gained 6, lost 9. I ended the month down 3lbs, but I "should" have lost around 5. 11 days over 2000, plus one over 3000.
There isn't a direct correlation, but in a few cases if I assume all the days I DIDN'T track I was near or over 2000, it explains a bit more.
It's definitely interesting... I originally started because I was wondering about my calorie deficit. If SP is wrong about my BMR, than my deficits might be smaller than I think they are, so I might need to lower my target a bit and not allow myself to eat up to the top of my range quite so often. I was wondering if this would show up in the data anywhere; unfortunately I've had too many months lately where I either didn't track, or ate like crazy for 1/3 of the month. Ha. Hard to say but I'll keep an eye on it.
It does seem that tracking every day (or only missing 1-2 days) and keeping as few as possible days over 2000 when I do over, is pretty well coordinated with weight loss. More days over 2000 = gaining weight, no matter what the monthly average seems to say! (Stupid February...)
I still don't know what the heck was up with this September, though. It's not the worst of the bunch in terms of tracking (tracked 14/30 days) and I doubt every single one of those other 16 days was over 2000 calories, but I guess it's possible that a large number of them were... Also I was not great about weighing myself and tracking that, so my report doesn't reflect it, but I KNOW I was 261 at some point in September. So during September, I gained 11 pounds and lost 10, for a net gain of +1. I'm just going to assume it's some sort of adjustment period for my body because October has been pretty reasonable.
I've lost 2.2 pounds of a predicted 5.2 for the month. Will I lose 3 pounds in the next 2 weeks? Maybe. That's 1.5lbs/week which is not terrible, and since the new battery the scale has been creeping down around a half pound almost every day. Still, even with as well as I've been feeling like I'm doing, my deficit for October isn't where I want it, so I guess I'd better watch that.
It's easy to get lulled into a false sense of security with some of this... I keep find it weird that the SP recommendations for how many calories to burn and how much to eat to lose 2lbs/week don't actually line up (mathematically!) with the calorie deficit needed to lose 2lbs/week. I need to figure out what is the correct deficit for MY BODY to lose consistently...
I bet I can get on a good groove, though. Last year I lost weight right through Thanksgiving and Christmas, and I'd like to do so again!
With the added bonus of not going to complete crap for 8 months after New Year's like a big giant idiot, of course... That would be nice...