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Running Predictions


Sunday, June 16, 2013

According to Jeff Galloway's miracle mile formula, my recent mile run time of 9:25 predicts I should run a 5K in 30:54. If I use my best ever mile time of 8:47 that predicts a 5K time of 28:56. But in mid-April I ran a 5K in 27:33, considerably faster than predicted.

My recent time predicts a 10K time of 1:07, but my April time was 1:01, decidedly faster than predicted.

My recent time predicts a half marathon time of 2:28. My one and only half marathon I ran in 2:37, slower than predicted.

What does this mean? I should be able to run a faster mile. I'll try. And I have a real shot at a personal record in my half marathons coming up in November and
February.
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  Member Comments About This Blog Post:

AQUAGIRL08 6/19/2013 3:23PM

    Wow! It's interesting to know how "high tech" running is getting. I think that the one thing that any formula doesn't figure in is your drive to beat your previous time. The projections assume that you will always run at similar rates but knowing that humans can compete against their own times means that projections can only predict a range of times. You are doing a great job!

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MARGARITTM 6/19/2013 11:27AM

    Check with VDOT - bing/google will give you a better #

Also check out WAVA plug in your last 5k

Comment edited on: 6/19/2013 11:28:53 AM

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NATPLUMMER 6/17/2013 3:42PM

    I think the Magic Mile is most useful to get your long run speed.
Remember you ran your most recent MM in heat and humidity that were not there when you ran your fastest 5K and 10K races. It's natural to slow down a bit in warmer and more humid conditions.

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BROOKLYN_BORN 6/17/2013 11:43AM

    Thanks for sharing this. I wasn't aware of this formula. Got to do some calculations. (More serious training wouldn't hurt either)

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DONNABRIGHT 6/17/2013 10:17AM

    emoticon

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MEXGAL1 6/17/2013 9:46AM

    Hum, that is pretty telling... for me though I think I would just be so delighted to complete the distance...not sure I would get into the time factor. You sure sound like a true runner with all this. Good for you Marsha.
You go girl!

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GABY1948 6/17/2013 9:20AM

    I never realized what a defined science running is! GO, Marsha!

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TRAVELGRRL 6/17/2013 8:27AM

    I am looking forward to getting as involved in running as you are! Unfortunately it is not in the cards right now. I did order a couple of Jeff's books that should be waiting for me when we get home in two more weeks. There is a half marathon training group in my town that starts mid-July, but I would have to miss 6 sessions (including a stretch of 4 weeks in a row), so I decided not to do it this year. emoticon

Keep up the good work! It's great to always have a goal ahead of you!

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WATERMELLEN 6/17/2013 7:50AM

    Adrenalin! And: optimism!!

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JOYINKY 6/17/2013 6:08AM

    emoticon

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NEW-CAZ 6/17/2013 2:52AM

    I'm sure you'll keep pushing and improving on your PB Marsha, you are amazing! emoticon

have a great week emoticon

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JUNEPA 6/16/2013 10:44PM

    Jeff says to look at the last 4 magic miles and take the average of the best three.

Are you basing your expectations on your fastest magic mile, and how long ago did you run it?

You are doing awesome, not wanting to sound negative but sharing what I know.

In my case my 5k is slower than predicted from my magic mile times and my HM time is right on.

It may be that your body is more of a sprinter, plus, Jeff's predictions are averages and not always bang on but give good training pace information.

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LIVE2RUN4LIFE 6/16/2013 10:09PM

    One other observation. You can also use a 5K race to predict race times for longer distances. Your 5K PR (27:33) corresponds to a 8:20 MM in Jeff's calculator and a half marathon race pace of 10:00 /mi (2:11 race time) and a training pace of 11:50 /mi (2:35 elapsed time).

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IAMWINNING 6/16/2013 8:31PM

    Gee, Marsha. I think I'd just be happy to run - forget how fast! LOL You are doing such a super great job, and obviously enjoy it. emoticon emoticon

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MSLZZY 6/16/2013 8:16PM

    I can see that happening! You are amazing!

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LIVE2RUN4LIFE 6/16/2013 8:16PM

    How many Magic Miles have you run? There is a skill involved as well as a fitness component that you will get better at as you do them.

It takes a while to learn how to pace a really fast mile. Two problems are common. First, going out too fast at the beginning and running out of gas before the end. Second, if you (your brain, really) aren't used to running at really high heart rates, you can have just the opposite of the first problem and run too conservatively (I suspect that is your situation).

Since the longer the distance, the harder it is to actually achieve a peak pace predicted by a mile time trial, it's not surprising that you would overachieve (according to the MM) on a 5K but still under achieve on the potential half marathon time. The 5K is much closer to the mile in distance and requires similar stamina, so if your mile time is actually slower than your real potential, you'd expect to see that in a 5K. I've been training hard for several years now, and still have not achieved either my potential Half time or Marathon time. I've come closer with the half.

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COCK-ROBIN 6/16/2013 8:13PM

    Go for it!

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