Road2Hope HM. Massive PR last year despite a seriously long uncertified course and my one and only sub 2:00 HM to date. This year, the course is certified.

Base: sub 2:00. Seriously, this is possibly one of the easiest HM courses around, with 6K straight downhill, so anything over 2 hours would be a massive disappointment.

Stretch: PR (current - 1:57:26)

Reach: sub 1:55. I think last year at the 21.1K mark, my Garmin was showing 1:53 so this is quite doable.