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This will be interesting...

Sunday, June 20, 2010

As many of you know, I'm a numbers-obsessed engineer. I weigh myself daily (in the morning) and use a Google Docs spreadsheet with a formula for filtering out daily fluctuations and reporting a smoothed result. It's got some similarities to the Hacker's Diet or Physics Diet formula, but I like mine better!

I've got daily weigh-in information going all the way back to November, and additional information going all the way back to August 1, just not daily. I've seen my weight go up a couple pounds for a couple days, and I've seen it drop by a couple pounds for a couple days, and I've learned to just roll with it and keep on plugging.

Here's a graph of my weigh-ins and the filtered weight for the past 60 days. Today's day 300 on SP for me, by the way...

The Orange points are the scale weigh-in numbers. Green are filtered values (the values I report on my ticker), and Blue and Red are limits which tell me which days have truly significant deviations from what's expected and what I should ignore.

To give people some reference points, I started Insanity on April 19 (Day 238), and called it off the first time on May 7 (Day 256). My six days of 10K/day (i.e. Stupidity) went from May 9 (Day258) to May 14 (Day 263). I tried to re-start Insanity May 18 (Day 267), and came down with a cold on May 19 (Day 268) which I was then fighting until May 29 (Day 278). My 5K race was on May 30 (Day 279), I re-started Insanity on June 7 (Day 287), and my 10K race was on June 18 (Day 298).

If you look at Days 240-270, you can see why daily weigh-ins aren't for everyone. There are several 1-2 pound daily swings and the hump from days 260-270 is pretty wild. I've actually seen humps like that three or four times in 10 months, so things like that don't phase me anymore. Days 270-290 look like more of the same, but the last 10 days, Days 290-300, look like something new.

In fact, today's only the second day since I started that my spreadsheet would tell me to report a gain. An absolutely minuscule gain, but a gain nonetheless.

Food-wise, the week's been pretty similar to most weeks except for the last two days. My Aunt's memorial service was on Monday (and I forgot to weigh in that morning) but I was already up before that and I didn't eat anything out of the ordinary that day. I ran my first 10K on Friday and I really enjoyed myself and ate quite a bit afterward (food I didn't track and probably never will), and last night we had a BBQ dinner at my sister's house and I ate quite a bit (I did track that...). That might explain the last two days, but again I was already up before that.

Is this the start of a plateau? Is my body finally waking up to the fact that I'm within 5 pounds of having a BMI of 25? It's my second week back to Insanity, so is my body holding onto more water for repair? Who knows? I think the next couple weeks are going to be interesting. I'm not going to change anything as a result of this, but I'm going to be watching carefully. Maybe I'll get some answers, maybe not, but I think it'll be fun to find out!

EVILKLOWN & I have a bit of an informal race going on right now, seeing who will get to BMI=25 (i.e. 169 pounds) first. On Friday, he reported a (small) gain, and conceded the race but I responded right back saying don't be so sure of that - he's still in the running. The 169 pound mark is also significant to my wife; currently she's (still) on a plateau at 108 pounds lost, and has been dreading the day that I pass her for weight loss, which would when I'm at 169 pounds. Sweetie, it might be a bit later than expected...

BTW, just in case anyone's not clear: this is not a "woe is me" blog. If this is the start of a plateau, this is something that I've been expecting to happen for quite a while (I'm actually amazed it didn't happen earlier), and marks the beginning of the next stage of weight loss, one that I fully expected to go through. If it's water retention, it may flush out of my system all at once (I saw a 5-pound loss in 3 days early on - the only thing it could have been is water), or it may stay around for a while. If it's something else, I'll roll with it and keep on going.
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Member Comments About This Blog Post
    I love this !! I am a numbers guy at heart as well and I so appreciate the "obsession" with tracking. Some people think it can be very dysfunctional, and yes for some people frequent tracking results in negative responses and can throw them off their game. But for others it is part of the fuel that drives their success. Clearly you are in the latter category.
    2825 days ago
    I weigh myself everyday, too, but I do not track it at all. I do notice that there are variations.

    BREWMASTERBILL made a good comment about changing something in your routine. That could be what you are eating or your fitness.

    Keep pushing! You are doing great and I hope you get to 169 first!
    2825 days ago
    hihih I understand your obsession for numbers I am a nerd to :)

    YOU ROCK! hihihih
    2825 days ago
  • ALLISON145
    I've actually been tracking daily on the Hacker's site since you sent me the link a couple of weeks ago - so thanks for that!! I don't think I ever responded and told you how much I enjoyed the site overall.

    That being said - can you send me your spreadsheet with calcs?? I really like that it has the top and bottom range built it - I'm surprised Hacker's hasn't done that!

    Either way - rock on! You are doing great! Sometimes it just takes a bit for your body to let go of weight, especially when you're training so hard and most assuredly building some nice looking muscle. No worries!!



    P.S. Wow - just noticed all of the exclamation points in this post. LOL. I'm just excited to see your consistent progress, what can I say? It gives me hope. :)

    2825 days ago
    Ha ha - I'm still stuck at 172 this morning. I've been hovering between 171-173 for about three weeks - BUT - I'm feeling skinnier than that and that is usually the first sign some weight is about to go. We shall see. I've had these "stuck" times before and sometimes a whole bunch of weight just goes flying off -- *hope hope hope*.
    2825 days ago
    Are your upper and lower control limits moving too? The range between them, that is. Looks like it started at about 4 and now it's closer to 8. Does that mean anything? emoticon

    Love your graph. I had a similar one, but have not kept it up since my PC puked. Need to rebuild the spreadsheet and just haven't done it yet.

    Whether you are approaching a plateau (or heaven forbid, a gain), I'm sure you will make the necessary adjustments to get where you want to go!
    2826 days ago
  • NWFL59
    Your results speak for themselves and if you're starting to taper off on the amount of net loss then you must be very close to where your body has your new set point. Good luck in the competition between your and evilklown. At the rate Speedydog bruce keeps beating himself up, you'll probably be able to beat him too when ever y'all determine comparable race conditions.
    2826 days ago
    Here's an unscientific response, one you probably already know ... but when you plateau, the response is to change something. Since you get a TON of physical activity, have you considered modifying your macros? I went to a higher protein intake and changed nothing else and lost a few pounds (I was going for a gain, so this wasn't my desired outcome). I think this would have different affects on different people, but I didn't see it it mentioned, so I thought I would bring it up.

    Although, I'm with you at the moment. I'd stay the course, no reason for drastic action yet.

    Appreciate the numbers.
    2826 days ago
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