I agree that waist measurements are a 'moody' thing.
Another thing to consider is that if you're doing a lot of ab work and/or back work your muscles in that area could be growing a little. If you haven't lost fat from that area you may measure larger.
No one way of measuring fitness/health is going to give you the whole picture. According to body fat I'm average, according to BMI I'm obese! According to what people say when they look at me, I'm attractive, maybe a little over weight but definitely not obese.
Go by your ability to perform and how you feel (at rest and during physical activity), those are the best indicators of health.
I think the waist measurement is a moody thing. Is your waist bloated at all? Did you eat salty food leading up to your measurement? If I do, my waist measurement is higher. Honestly, I hate measuring my waist because it can change daily (not that I measure daily), so my reading all depends on if I'm bloated at all or not. And, if I measured in the morning once, I better remeasure in the morning to be as accurate as possible because by the end of the day, my waist is much larger...just like my weight goes up at the end of the day.
So okay yesterday I measured myself, not sure how accurate that is, but anywho I was shocked to realize my waist measurement was up a 1/2 in. Hips were down, bust was the same. How is that possible? I lost 3 lbs last week.
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