So the only cardio you do is one 30-40 minute run?
Strength training doesn't burn terribly many calories as you do it. How are you measuring your burn for that? By Spark's estimation based on time, or by an HRM? HRMs are not capable of giving a burn rate for ST.
If the majority of your exercise is ST, it's going to be incredibly difficult to manage how many calories you're actually burning. The best thing you can do is see what results your actions get you, and adjust accordingly.